Africa is becoming increasingly central to the global energy transition. As demand for electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing continues to rise, the world’s need for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, manganese, and rare earth elements is accelerating rapidly. According to the World Economic Forum and IMF, Africa holds nearly 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, positioning the continent as one of the most strategically important regions in the future global economy.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), revenues from just four minerals copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium could generate approximately $16 trillion globally over the next 25 years, with Sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing more than 10% of that value. The World Economic Forum also estimates that Africa’s refined minerals market could grow to approximately $120 billion by 2040 if more mineral processing and beneficiation activities are retained on the continent.
However, the key investment opportunity is no longer simply extraction. Africa continues to export the majority of its minerals in raw form, while the highest-value processing stages occur elsewhere. This gap represents one of the largest untapped economic opportunities across the continent. According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, one metric ton of lithium concentrate can generate approximately $3,000 in value, while processed lithium sulphate may generate as much as $25,000 per ton demonstrating the enormous value difference between raw extraction and downstream processing.
African governments are consequently putting policies into place more frequently that are meant to promote local industry and processing. In an effort to boost domestic value addition, more than 13 African nations have implemented beneficiation policies, local content requirements, or export bans since 2023. For instance, Zimbabwe placed limitations on the export of raw lithium, which encouraged investment in the Arcadia Mine, Africa's first lithium sulphate processing facility. Additionally, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are working together on regional battery value chains that are centered on cathode production, precursor manufacturing, and supply chains for electric vehicles.
These patterns are already starting to be followed by investment activity. Companies like Gotion High Tech and BTR New Material Group are making significant investments in battery and cathode manufacturing facilities, making Morocco one of Africa's top hubs for battery manufacture and processing. Additionally, logistics corridors like the Nacala Corridor, which connects Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, are illustrating how infrastructure and transportation investments linked to mineral supply chains can produce wider industrial growth across several sectors.
Despite the strong long-term outlook, investors must also approach the sector carefully. Processing infrastructure remains highly capital intensive, political and security risks remain material in some jurisdictions, and many mining regions continue to face infrastructure deficits related to power, water, and logistics. The African Energy Chamber emphasizes that successful investment strategies will require patient capital, strong governance frameworks, and partnerships capable of supporting long-term industrial development.
At Oxano Capital, we believe Africa’s critical minerals opportunity extends far beyond mining itself. We see the strongest long-term value emerging from processing infrastructure, logistics corridors, ESG-certified supply chains, and industrial ecosystems that allow more value creation to remain within African economies. As global competition for critical minerals intensifies, Africa’s role within the future energy economy is expected to become increasingly strategic for investors, governments, and industrial players alike.